How to Handicap Horse Races - specifics

You would have to spend decades at the track to extract this much information about handicapping horse races!!

1
IDReasonDescriptionTotal BetWinnings
1Down in class This can be a great reason to bet horse, a horse who runs last in $50000 allowance is probably better than all the horses in a 5000 claimer713.00711.50
2Jockey upgrade I rarely bet jockeys, but some get hot and some are especially good at certain tracks. This is probably because they know the trainers and get the best rides.576.00653.60
3Won last race This is not a great point as the best bets are from horses coming into their best. 115.0066.25
4Wins on dirt and turf this is a good sign of a good horse. Not many like both.109.00100.00
5could get some odds overlooked horses are are some of the best deals.0.000.00
6only other real contender Many races have two very highly favorite horses. The exacta here usually doesn’t pay much. 0.000.00
7back in allowance company this happens a lot to older horses, when the trainer is not afraid of having them claimed. Often the claiming races are just tune-ups. 0.000.00
8Direct descendent I would not rely hard on this, but it is a sign that this horse will run like his dad.20.0020.00
9Good works my favorite handicapping point. The speed of the workout is not as important as when he worked. Before a sprint it is ideal to have 3 works of 4 furlongs one week apart. If a horse is worked five furlongs before races it is a good chance he will come out the gate hard. 829.00862.75
10last race was over his head some horses do not run well against superior horses, they know the pecking order - they say the other horses let Secretariat eat first115.0020.00
11off the turf pick sometimes a trainer will enter a horse in a turf race hoping it will rain and the race will come off the turf – then the dirt horse has the advantage 30.000.00
121st time at Arlington great – some horses really hate Arlington those that like it have a real advantage2.400.00
13two best horses obviously the two best horses have a high probability of coming first and second26.0027.00
14victimized in last race sometimes a horse may be bumped out of gate or cut off later in race – so a bad finish in that race should be discounted25.0043.50
15improvinga great handicapping indicator especially when it is cold 681.00626.60
16hit the board last 4 times shows consistency 70.0015.00
17just missed last two times outin maiden races (maidens are horses who have not won a race) – Mares need to get one win so they can be advertised after retiring from racing for breeding. 35.00106.00
18hot trainer – a great handicapping indicator – trainers are often hot for a while and then get cold381.00317.10
19jock - trainer combo trainers usually have a favorite jockey they give him/her the good mounts. They do that because sometimes they need a favor (bad horse that needs a jock or good horse that needs to be pulled up). 747.00636.00
20Turf Paradise strategy I have discovered a strategy that seems to work very well in TP 6f races. Speed over class. Bet the exacta or tri with the horse with good speed races over the horse who has run in bigger money races. 90.0050.00
22this horse really likes tracksome tracks are different as Colonial Downs has a really big track and great turf.198.40252.50
23Trainers really likes track some trainers excel at certain tracks213.00262.70
24Route Horsesome horses are good at long distancce some at short45.0045.00
25 2nd off layoff like being claimed the 2nd after is key100.0058.00
2610 power point ruleif a horse has a 10 point power point avantage over all the other horses he will probably win/the trick is to find one with some odds366.00305.00
27sprint trainersome trainers excell at sprints86.0020.00
28route trainersome trainers excell in route races0.000.00
29hot jockI normally dont bet a horse because of the jockey, but sometimes when the jockey is hot it is a great idea200.00118.50
30likes distancesome horses sprint some like long distance214.00201.10
32good breedinggood for determining young horses possibiliies14.000.00
33last race breakouthorse may have found his own100.00100.00
34Was last race a workoutA route horse sometimes enters a sprint as a workout. Especially older horse with little chance of being claimed20.0010.00
35second alowance raceoften the first allowance race is a learning event for horse35.0063.00
36trainer stats trainers are often better in certain types of race as maiden claiming or allowances 498.00710.35
37Carries less weightrokie jockie or some allowances and claimming have some horses carry less weight. Obvious advantage35.0035.00
382nd off claimfirst race after being claimed trainer may be experimenting50.0064.00
39lone early speedtactical advantage/ especially if the early pace is slow56.0050.00
40good works after long layoffThis is a point which seems to work. I guess fast works indicate the horse is ready despite layoff.5.000.00
41turf horse for turf racesome horses like dirt some like turf few like both45.0060.00
42second race in Americahorses takea little adjusting coming from other countries/In Europe they run the other way backwards here/also they use better drugs here0.000.00
43needs a miracleometimes horses seem to need a miracle to win/nothing in PP points to it. But miracles happen.10.000.00
44lane 3 to 5 short tracklane 3 to 5 offers a tactical advantage on short tracks if the horse has some early speed15.000.00
45good lanelane is winning in track bias20.0033.00